Last year was the first year in the last four that Georgia football lost to Florida, and it’s time for revenge.
It’s that time of year again. The leaves are turning colors and falling off the trees. Pumpkins and jack-o-lanterns are seen everywhere. Kids are figuring out what costumes they want to wear and dreaming of all the candy they will be getting. With all of this going on there is only one thought on Georgia football fans’ minds. It is almost time for the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party. Time to start making the long trek down to Jacksonville.
This year’s WLOCP has a different feel to it than most in recent memory. This time around Georgia football is looking to win after losing last year’s contest. It’s still a hard pill to swallow. A Dan Mullen lead Florida team beat the Bulldogs just last season. That is something all Georgia fans have to live with. No matter how many showers you have taken since that day that is a stink that won’t go away until rectified.
The good news is there couldn’t be a wider gap between where Georgia football is today compared to where Florida is now. Kirby Smart has his team sitting at 7-0, ranked number one, and has the number one recruiting class for 2022 as of now. Mullen’s team is sitting at 4-3, is unranked, and has the number 23 recruiting class for 2022 as of now. Mullen is on a steep decline and that trend doesn’t look to be changing anytime soon.
When it comes to how these teams compare to one another, analytically, it’s closer than some people would believe. In fact, Parker over at https://www.cfb-graphs.com/ has Georgia football beating the Gators by just nine points in his advanced stats preview this week. Even though most Georgia fans would disagree with the score prediction there is a lot of good stuff in this preview.
Georgia’s defense is going to be too much for Florida’s offense and Georgia’s offense is much better than Florida’s defense. There is absolutely no reason to believe that Florida’s run game will be able to be successful against the best rush defense in the nation. Expect Georgia’s offense to have great field position for most of this game due to defensive stops and turnovers.
Now Parker isn’t the only analytics analyst on social media. Here is an offering from Florida fan Bud Davis.
Let’s go over this tweet point by point.
Florida offense vs Georgia football defense
- Georgia’s defense has a high stuff rate so don’t run.
- Georgia’s stuff rate is 17th in the nation (22.7%) and has the top rushing defense in the country.
- Florida rushes 56.5% of the time, so they’re going to try to run (unsuccessfully).
- Florida’s run percentage per quarter, 1st: 50.88% 2nd: 46.51% 3rd: 54.33% 4th: 55.12%
- Score TDs every trip into UGA territory
- Georgia is only allowing opponents to cross midfield three times a game. So that would be 21 total points for the game.
- Zero Turnovers
- This one is just common sense.
Florida defense vs Georgia football offense
- Make Stetson beat you throwing to wide receivers
- Do Florida fans not know what Ladd McConkey did to Auburn? (5 catches 135 yards 1 TD)
- Jermaine Burton, Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint, and Arian Smith have all been dealing with injuries this season. All three are expected to play this weekend (barring no setbacks).
- Lock up Brock Bowers
- This one sounds good, but Bowers has averaged 4 catches, 75 yards, and 1.2 touchdowns a game since Clemson. (he wasn’t targeted against Arkansas because they ran on 80% of their plays that game)
- Limit the running game (because they have a run first offense)
- Georgia doesn’t have a run first offense. Todd Monken takes what the defense gives him. Then he runs the ball to run out the clock once he has a big lead.
- Georgia’s run/pass split this season is 59.73%/40.27%
- First quarter its 50%/50%
- Second quarter its 52.68%/47.32%
- Third quarter its 55.08%/44.92%
- Fourth quarter its 83.50%/16.50%
- Generate turnovers
- Again, common sense
As you can see, this Georgia football team presents too many challenges for this Florida team this season. There is no reason for this to even be a game after the third quarter. Florida is not winning this game. Georgia is out for revenge and there is no reason to believe they won’t get it. The only question is how bad Georgia beats Florida at this point. Hopefully Coach Smart will put his football on these Gators’ throats and never let up. #FTMF