Georgia Football: Predicting just how prolific the offense can be

Can Georgia football score with other prolific offenses in College Football?

There has been a lot of talk this off-season about Georgia football and its defense. However, outside of their tight end room, there hasn’t been a lot of talk about their offense as a whole. This may not only be Georgia’s best unit this season, but it could also be the best offensive unit since Kirby Smart became head coach.

In 2019 Georgia averaged 30.8 points per game. That went up to 32.3 points per game in 2020, an increase of 4.5%. In 2021, Georgia’s points per game increased from 32.3 to 38.6, an increase of 16.5%. That’s an average increase of 10.5% over Todd Monken’s first two seasons as the Offensive Coordinator for Georgia Football.

If Georgia football made another such increase in 2022 of between 4.5 and 10.5 percent they could likely average between 40-43 points per game. That would have them knocking on the door of having one of the top five scoring offenses in College Football.

Take a look at these trends for Georgia football on offense over the last three years:

2019

  • Success Rate 47%, Standard Downs 54%, Passing Downs 31%
  • Total EPA 0.205, Rushing 0.122, Passing 0.313
  • Total Explosiveness 1.13, Rushing 0.87, Passing 1.58

2020

  • Success Rate 44%, Standard Downs 48%, Passing Downs 33%
  • Total EPA 0.227, Rushing 0.194, Passing 0.264
  • Total Explosiveness 1.32, Rushing 0.91, Passing 1.92

2021

  • Success Rate 50%, Standard Downs 53%, Passing Downs 39%
  • Total EPA 0.302, Rushing 0.206, Passing 0.422
  • Total Explosiveness 1.25, Rushing 0.88, Passing 1.72

In 2020 Georgia football, as every other program in College Football, missed Spring Practice, Summer Practice, and most of Fall Camp. Not only that, but their starting quarterback opted out two weeks before the season opener. Even facing that much adversity didn’t stop Monken’s offense from nearly improving over Jame Coley’s across the board in EPA and explosiveness.

This is why it is not too much of a stretch to believe Monken could again increase the output of Georgia’s offense another 4.5% in 2022. Monken has now had back-to-back offseason with full workouts. Not only that but he has also had a lot of the same players for the last two offseasons.

Here is a look at just how much production Georgia football returns in 2022. They return 77% of their passing usage (No. 7 in the SEC), 72% (No. 2 in the SEC) of their receiving usage, and 45% (No. 8 in the SEC) of their rushing usage. They return 77% of their passing EPA (No. 7 in the SEC), 71% of their receiving EPA (No. 3 in the SEC), and 50% of their rushing EPA (No. 9 in the SEC).

According to On3, here is how Georgia’s offensive units are ranked in the SEC:

  • Quarterback – No. 6
  • Running Backs – No. 2
  • Pass catchers – No. 2
  • Offensive Line – No. 1

With all of this talent returning, with experience as well, there really is no reason why Georgia football couldn’t have a top-five scoring offense in 2022. Which really begs the question, why hasn’t any of the national pundits picked up on this? They won’t be able to ignore it soon.

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