Georgia Football vs Oregon by the numbers

Georgia football heads to Atlanta this week to take on the Oregon Ducks. Let’s dive into the analytics of this matchup.

On September 3rd, Georgia football will take on the Oregon Ducks in the Chick-Fil-A Kickoff Game. Both teams come into the game ranked as Georgia is the number three team in College Football and Oregon is number 11. This will be their first match-up where both teams are ranked.

This will be just the second time that Oregon and Georgia have played one another. Their first match-up came over three decades ago in Athens, back in 1977. Georgia would win that game 27-16. They will look to make it back-to-back wins in the state of Georgia as this game is in Atlanta.

Former Georgia defensive coordinator Dan Lanning will lead the Ducks. This bodes well for Georgia as head coach Kirby Smart is currently 3-0 when facing his former assistants.

Let’s take a look at how Georgia football compares to Oregon on offense.

Expected Points AddedGeorgiaOregon
All0.3020.269
Rushing0.2060.297
Passing0.4220.264
Numbers from CollegeFootballData.com

Success RateGeorgiaOregon
All50%49%
Standard Downs53%55%
Passing Downs39%34%
Numbers from CollegeFootballData.com

ExplosivenessGeorgiaOregon
All1.251.20
Rushing0.880.96
Passing1.721.55
Numbers from CollegeFootballData.com

Georgia football returns both of their leaders on offense. This season will be the third for Todd Monken as offensive coordinator and it will be the second year for Stetson Bennett as starting quarterback. Continuity is very important for success and Georgia’s offense has it.

In fact, take a look at Georgia football’s returning production from 2021.

SeasonTeamEPAPassing EPAReceiving EPARushing EPAUsage
2022Georgia68.5%76.8%71.4%49.9%63%
Numbers from CollegeFootballData.com

Bennett is back to lead Georgia’s offense, which was Collge Football’s number six most explosive offense in the nation in 2021. One big reason for that was that Bennett was one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the nation last season. He ranked fourth in QBR with an 86.7. He also had an interception rate of just 2.4%.

Kenny McIntosh, Kendall Milton, and Daijun Edwards return to run the rock for Georgia football. These three combined for 32% of Georgia’s usage in the running game last year. According to Sports Reference, they combined for 1,096 yards and nine touchdowns. McIntosh actually led all of Georgia’s running backs in pass EPA with a rate of 0.838. In fact, McIntosh could be the best receiving back in the country.

According to College Football Data, Georgia football returns three receivers that had a usage higher than ten percent in the passing game. Those receivers were Brock Bowers (21%), Adonai Mitchell (13%), and Ladd McConkey (11%). They combined for 1,755 yards and 22 touchdowns. All three of these players were true freshmen.

According to Football Outsiders, in 2021, Georgia football was ranked number 11 in the nation in line yards. Their offensive line cleared an average of 3.06 yards per play for the offense. However, their 72.4% power success rate only ranked them number 52 in the nation. Their 4.6% sack rate ranked them number 20 in the nation.

Georgia has three starters returning on the offensive line. Those starters are Sedrick Van Pran-Grager at center, Warren McClendon at right tackle, and Tate Ratledge at right guard. Sophomore Broderick Jones takes over at left tackle and redshirt sophomore Xavier Truss takes over at left guard.

Before we dive into Oregon’s numbers, these are the numbers from their 2021 offense. After landing the head coaching job, Lanning hired Florida State and former Auburn offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham for the same position at Oregon. So the offense will look different in 2022.

Oregon also went shopping in the transfer portal to add five new players to their offense. Those players are Chase Cota, Caleb Chapman, Mar’Keise Irving, Noah Whittington, and most notably, Bo Nix. Two wide receivers, two running backs, and a quarterback.

One big reason why Oregon had to go to the transfer portal for so many players is their lack of returning talent. Take a look at their returning production from 2021.

SeasonTeamEPAPassing EPAReceiving EPARushing EPAUsage
2022Oregon17.2%7.3%31.3%8.3%16.9%
Numbers from CollegeFootballData.com

Oregon does return a very good offensive line. They were number two in College Football last season in average line yards. They were able to give their offense 3.21 yards per play. However, their sack rate was 4.8% which placed them number 26 in the nation. This tied them with Auburn who passed the ball 40 more times.

So much for Bo Nix having a better offensive line now that he’s out west.

Now, let’s look at how Georgia football compares to Oregon on defense.

Expected Points AddedGeorgiaOregon
All-0.0450.204
Rushing-0.0160.166
Passing-0.0630.243
Numbers from CollegeFootballData.com

Success RateGeorgiaOregon
All32%45%
Standard Downs37%50%
Passing Downs25%34%
Numbers from CollegeFootballData.com

ExplosivenessGeorgiaOregon
All1.231.21
Rushing0.870.94
Passing1.541.47
Numbers from CollegeFootballData.com

When it comes to returning production on the defensive side, Georgia football is left wanting. They lost Jordan Davis, Devonte Wyatt, Trevon Walker, Nakobe Dean, Quay Walker, Channing Tindall, Derion Kendrick. and Lewis Cine. Georgia returns just four starters from its historic defense.

However, Georgia football does return its sack leader Robert Beal. He sacked the opposing quarterback 6.5 times in 2021. They also have Nolan Smith back who was 0.5 tackles for loss from leading the team a year ago. Dean lead the team with 10.5 and Smith had 10.0.

National Championship hero Kelee Ringo returns to patrol in the secondary, as well as Chris Smith and Dan Jackson. Tykee Smith is also healthy and ready to aid the secondary.

According to Duckswire, Oregon also returns just four starters on defense. This makes a lot of sense seeing as Lanning is changing up their scheme. However, two of the players Oregon returns are Noah Sewell and Brandon Dorlus.

Sewell had 114 tackles last season averaging 8.14 tackles a game. Sewell and Dorlus combined for 15.5 tackles for loss, 6.5 of those were sacks. Dorlus also added four quarterback pressures.

There are a lot of question marks on both defenses, however, the continuity within Georgia football should give them an edge come game day.

Conclusion

Georgia football has too much offensive explosion to be contained by Oregon’s defense. First-year head coach Lanning will have his guys ready to play, but his mentor will be one step ahead. With continuity on its side, Georgia will win by at least two scores.

Score prediction: Georgia 32 Oregon 17

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